Proliferating Thoughts

December 22, 2009

Arms Controller of the Year

Filed under: Uncategorized — admin @ 5:35 pm

The Arms Control Association is having its annual Arms Control Person of the Year competition again. There is a good selection of people and organizations on the list which can be broken down into those who done something and those who have proclaimed something.

I think Jeffrey Lewis at Arms Control Wonk summed things up quite nicely with his post lamenting the eagerness of those voting to pile in on behalf of Barack Obama. The contrast between Senator Richard Lugar and President Barack Obama is actually that much clearer given that Obama, during his none-too-long stay in the U.S. Senate actually took a trip to Russia with Lugar to look at the work being done under the Cooperative Threat Reduction (CTR) program.

Senator Lugar has been working on CTR issues for the better part of two decades now and has helped to sustain this program in the face of indifference or even opposition from the Executive Office. He has kept his eye on the goal and although it is a pity the Russians are more willing or able to pay up to fulfill their treaty obligations the important point has been and continues to be that we all benefit by Russia destroying its stockpiles of chemical and nucelar weapons. In contrast the Obama adminstration has no arms control acheivements or accomplishments to its name after almost a year in office. Apart from some widely reported speeches and expressions of intent in the nuclear weapons area the main accomplishment has been to aggravate those seeking to make the Biological Weapons Convention more robust by adopting a public position that is essentially that of the Bush administration.

 So I am going to join Jeffrey in voting for Dick Lugar, and recommend that anyone who is remotely interested in these issues go to the Arms Control Association’s website and do the same.

December 5, 2009

Still more Library additions: but the last for a while

Filed under: Book purchases — admin @ 9:24 pm

In addition to the nonproliferation related materials I have also been buying other items. As mentioned military history including naval, WW1 and WW2, early modern, medieval and ancient, a little terrorism related material, and some space and aviation books.

The aviation and space books are a bit of a mixed bag, split between the new, mostly collected on my travels, and the old, mostly gotten from local 2nd hand book stores and the library sale.

Aviation & Space books

Aviation & Space books

“The Road to the 707″ was actually more interesting than I expected. I picked it up at the Boeing Museum of Flight bookstore in Seattle when we were over there this summer.  I didn’t have much time to make a decision as the store was closing but it looked interesting on a quick flip through so I took a chance.  In the event I was glad that I did. The book’s focus is not so much the 707 as the evolution of the various technologies that made it possible as experienced by the author. As such it is quite informative on the problems encountered during the development of early piston / propeller passenger aviation and even more useful on the process of introducing pressurization, jet engines and swept wings, all of which were extremely cutting edge technology at the time. The final chapters give a useful overview of the development and testing of the Dash-8, which was done entirely with the company’s own money in the absence of any contracts. When Boeing first flew the Dash-8 prototype there was little interest or acceptance on the part of airlines or pilots. Boeing actually had to take the plane on the road, so to speak, to give decision makers the opportunity to experience this breakthrough aircraft. Eventually Boeing was able to sell derivatives of the Dash-8 to the U.S.A.F. as the KC-135 and somewhat more refined evolutions of the original prototype to airlines around the world as the 707. The writing is great; complex technical topics are adequately explained and the author’s style is never turgid or dragging, which is never guaranteed with this sort of book.

Tommy Thomason’s “U.S. Naval Air Superiority” was bought on the same trip. I’d have to call it an absolute must for anyone who wants to understand carrier-based aviation. The book’s focus is the 25-odd year effort by the U.S. Navy to successfully adapt to the introduction of the jet-engine. Thi involved the development of a surprisingly large number of aircraft types over the period until they were able to finally put something in place that actually fulfilled their needs in the forms of the F-8 Crusader and the F-4 Phantom II. Although the focus is aircraft Thomason manages to squeeze in a lot of valuable information about the development of the carriers themselves and the significance of those developments, and the development of aircraft weapons systems in the period. this last aspect is particularly interesting as it highlights the difficulties the military was facing in the effort to respond to the introduction of the jet-engine. The issue of response and detection times was huge as the transformation in carrier tactics, and indeed carrier survivability, that had been enabled by the introduction of radar was being disrupted by the reduction in time available to intercept an attacker. Finding a workable solution was not helped by the inability to come up with effective weapons as missile technology was still very much in its infancy while cannons and unguided rockets were proving ineffective, to say the least. I am very much looking forward to receiving his companion volume “Strike from the sea” which deals with the evolution carrier-based bombers leading up to the F/A-18. It’s in the mail so hopefully I will have well before Birthmas.

Miscellaneous books

Miscellaneous books

These books are exactly like they sound. A mixture of eclectic interests. “The Fate of Africa” was excellent and I’ll happily recommend it to anyone, though prepare to be depressed. It is an unending litany of failure and worse, the worse being so bad that failure begins to look like success. Contrary to what some reviewers have suggested I don’t see it as presenting colonization a the best thing that happened to Africa. Rather it does an excellent job of stripping away the special pleading and excuse making that surrounds so much discussion of Africa’s post-colonial experience. I was somewhat familiar with pieces of the history of some of the countries in Africa but seeming them all set out together, and more importantly beside each other served to highlight how egregiously the people of Africa have been betrayed by their “leaders.”

“Liberal Fascism” was something I had been meaning to take a look at for some time but I only got around to buying this summer. Looking for something small to take with me to Belize I stuffed it in my bag and read it on the plane. It was a good read but it really came into its own once I got stuck down in Belize for an extra week. It was the only book I had and I had the chance to make good progress through it. I know many, especially on the left don’t like this book but it is well worth a read, if only for the way it trace the intellectual history of many concepts and ideals that are in current use. As an example it is rather useful for the manner in which it highlights the connection of the left to such delights as eugenics. The need for this is difficult to overstate as general understanding of eugenics these days seems to take the view that eugenics was something uniquely practiced by the Nazis and by extension, the political right. Indeed, there was a program on History Channel just yesterday that adopted that very approach. Of course the truth is that eugenics was part of the mainstream of social thought prior to WW2 and it was widely applied throughout the developed world. I didn’t get the book finished before I came back from Belize and will have to return to it over the Birthmas break.

Well that’s enough book updates for the moment. Next post will be something else entirely.

Yet more Library additions

Filed under: Book purchases — admin @ 4:10 pm

The November additions to the ever-increasing library. As the year draws to a close I took the opportunity to use the book budget to make one last round of purchases. I tried to keep it fairly tightly focused on the arms control treaties / regime front this time.

November books

November books

Reluctant Restraint looked like a useful addition, especially in combination with Solingen’s book, which at least one friend of mine has referred to in what can only be called a derisory manner. If I recall correctly the arument was that the book was overly reliant on economic determinism to explain nuclear choices in E. Asia, downplaying the significance of alliance relationships. I’ll be interested to see how that plays out. I am particularly looking forward to getting into “Sunken Treaties.” I may be mistaken but I strongly suspect that as the U.S. and Russia continue to downsize their nuclear arsenals the experience of the inter-war naval limitation treaties will become more and more relevant. If nothing else, the experience of negotiating arms control between multiple parties with differing relationships and obligations will represent a dramatic shift from the history of arms control to date which has been almost exclusively bilateral in nature. A further consideration will be dealing with the prickly subject of equality of armament. Working out the ratio system in the 1920s was hardly painless, especially in the Japanese case. I doubt China will be any easier to deal with in any nuclear weapons negotiations. Anything that smacks of less than absolute equality wit hthe other major powers will probably be rejected, a position that has the handy benefit of allowing china to remain outside of the nuclear disarmament process for as long as possible. “Complex Deterrence” will fit nicely with this reading.

“World At Risk” is available as a PDF but it was on special and books are much easier to read than electronic files, unless you have an ebook reader, which I don’t. This one will be worth revisiting; I got into a bit of a discussion with a fellow from the State Department earlier this year who professed himself at least as surprised as I was that the authors of the report totally discounted any suggestions that chemicals might be used by terrorists while making the utterly sensationalist assertion that there s a 50% chance of a nuclear weapon being used.

Book time again. Library acquisitions.

Filed under: Book purchases — admin @ 3:30 pm

This has been a good year on the library acquisitions front, though workloads and health have combined to make it difficult to keep up with the pace of acquisition. With any luck the Birthmas period will allow me to do some catching up. The books I’m showing here are the work related ones. I have also continued adding to my personal interest sets, notably the history of warfare, WW2 and WW1, naval history, and aviation history sets, but they are personal interest rather than work related, so will be talked about separately.

August to October

August to October

August to October saw an interesting set. I have particularly enjoyed Hoffman’s “Dead Hand,” though perhaps I could phrase that a little differently. I got Podvig’s book after I got into a bit of a back ‘n forth in the comments section of somebody elses blog on the topic of Russian / Soviet SLBMs, which is pretty much a conversation that is only of interest to those interested in such things. I wanted to confirm something that I was quite sure about before putting it into my comment and realized, rather to my surprise and consternation, that I didn’t actually have this book to delve into. Now that I have it I am glad that I do. It is a great reference for Russian / Soviet delivery systems, including some of the technical choices made by the designers.

Recent developments in the area of nuclear nonproliferation have gotten me thinking about my long-ago MA Thesis which offers several useful kernels for how I’m thinking about that regime. T.V. Paul’s book, along with Tannenwald’s “Nuclear Taboo” will be useful contributions that may help me with the process of reworking and re-wording some of those old ideas in a way that is publishable. Remains to be seen.

September 30, 2009

Sea-based Missile Defense.

Filed under: missile defense — admin @ 10:08 pm

Following on from President Obama’s decision to cancel plans for the installation of a land-based Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) system in Eastern Europe there has been a lot of discussion of the merits of this, generally on the lines of:

a) Obama has betrayed NATO and especially our vulnerable East European allies in return for empty promises from the Russians.

b) Obama has abandoned the corrosive policies of the previous administration allowing us to move forward on the important goals of nuclear disarmament and bounding Iran.  (PS: BMD would never have worked anyway so canceling it is good)

There are variations but that catches the general drift. There are usually some attached assertions about the anticipated effectiveness or otherwise of the proposed BMD systems that would have been installed in Poland. These are joined by further statements about how we will now be able to cooperate with the Russians on missile defense, some of which are reasonable while others are painfully naive.

What has been missing is vigorous discussion of the technical and operational aspects of the proposed replacement BMD system. Specifically the deployment of a number of Aegis warships tasked with the provision of missile defense services to Europe. For those interested in this rather important part of the equation I offer a couple of links worth pursuing. The first two are from Information Dissemination while the third is from The Space Review both of which are sources deserving of regular visits.

The first provides an overview of the technical capabilities of the Aegis BMD capability, paying particular attention to the number of ships that have the relevant capabilities built in or planned as an upgrade.

The second article gives some additional thought to the impact of this mission on the force structure of the U.S. Navy and raises the question of whether this will actually be a net positive contributor to Western security.

Finally, The Space Review carried an article by Brian Weeden this Monday that addresses the space-security aspects of this new mission for the U.S. Navy given that this BMD capability was the one used last year to shoot down a satellite in a decaying low-earth orbit.

Oh, and of course there is time for an obligatory missile defense picture.

SM-3 BMD Launch

Old Media continues its stumble towards the grave.

Filed under: Uncategorized — admin @ 4:06 pm

For some time now we have been hearing about how unjustly the traditional news media is being treated. Cruelly undermined by a new media that is indifferent to the high standards of sourcing and quality writing that outlets such as the NY Times have upheld for generations. Of course that is nothing more than self-serving claptrap on the part of the NY Times.

As an example we have this snippet from a story about an impending meeting between Iran and the group of six.

Mr. Ban met with Mr. Mottaki on Tuesday, just four days after a similar session with President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of Iran. Mr. Ban again told the Iranians that Security Council resolutions required the disclosure of any new nuclear plant when construction began, he told reporters afterward.

“If you were a normal country, you would declare it all beforehand,” a senior United Nations official said Mr. Ban had told Mr. Mottaki. “That is why you have Security Council resolutions against you, because you try to hide stuff.”

There are several problems with the rather confusing excerpt. First of all we are linking together a statement directly attributed to UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon (he told reporters afterward) in the first paragraph with a statement attributed to an unnamed “senior United Nations official” in the second. If you don’t closely read the two paragraphs you could easily conclude that the quoted statements are actually Mr. Ban’s. Which leads us to the primary problem, placing statements in quote-marks in a misleading way.

An initial reading of this statement leads the reader to think that Mr. Ban met with an Iranian official and then in a subsequent press conference said, presumably paraphrasing himself; “If you were a normal country, you would declare it all beforehand, . . . That is why you have Security Council resolutions against you, because you try to hide stuff.”

However this is not the case. At best the quote is from a UN official paraphrasing the words of Mr. Ban. It is second-hand and probably should not be treated as anything more than hearsay. If nothing else it seems unlikely that the UN Secretary-General would be telling Iranian diplomats to not “hide stuff.”

Perhaps the reporter used this “quote” because he wanted something pithy and informal that sounded a little tougher than we are used to hearing from the UN. Although the reporter has earlier quoted Mr. Ban he still feels it necessary to quote someone else repeating what they claim to be Mr. Ban’s words. The “quote” creates a somewhat different impression to that given by Mr. Ban’s words at the press conference. The reporter’s creativity is further underlined when he writes that “Mr. Ban said that he had also complained to Mr. Ahmadinejad about human rights violations.”

It is not clear when Mr. Ban made this statement that he had “complained” to the Iranian President but the structure of the article implies that Mr. Ban made this statement on Tuesday. However it certainly was not in the press conference of September 29th. Indeed the only references to human-rights issues in that press conference were to a issue raised by the Iranians and concerns over the situation in Sri Lanka.

If this report is the sort of thing that the NY Times thinks represent its strengths in reporting and analysis it is not all that surprising that the paper is rapidly declining. The article is nothing more than a jumbled pastiche of misleading “quotes’” and untraceable statements embellished by editorializing by the author. In this day and age, when a reader can much more easily get hold of copies of source material like official statements or press conference transcipts you might expect newspapers to try harder to ensure that their quotes a relevant and accurate and that they don’t misrepresent the tenor or content of statements. Apparently I am expecting too much.

In my experience “new media,” particularly high-quality blogs are doing the newspapers jobs much more effectively. And that is why old media is dying.

PS: I have noticed this for a long time now and had hoped that it would change at some point, but again, I appear to have been expecting too much.  Why is it that when the online versions of newspapers and other old media run stories that refer to press conferences, or the release of official documents, or even interesting reports or analyses by non-profits or think-tanks, they neglect to include links to the relevant source material either in the body of the article or at least in a sidebar. Is it really asking so much? This is pretty unforgivable in 2009. All it really does is make them less useful as a source of information and highlight their inability to adapt.

September 27, 2009

The value of a life (e.g: WTF)

Filed under: Israel - Palestine — Tags: , , , — admin @ 9:45 pm

A continuing thorn in Israel’s side is the soldier, Gilad Shalit who was captured by HAMAS back in 2006. Negotiations for his release ebb and wane without ever producing his release. I understand that those holding him feel that they are gaining leverage over the Israeli government and that they eventually hope to secure the release of some of their own people who held by the Israelis. There is nothing new in this, this sort of thing has been going on for years, Shalit is simply the latest Israeli soldier captured  and then offered in trade for Palestinian prisoners.

The bit I do not understand are the calculations made by the Palestinians. They are regularly ground down by Israeli military and economic strength and go to great lengths denouncing the Israelis in a variety of lurid ways. The general contention is that Palestinians are equal to Israelis and deserve to be treated as equals. Fair enough, why not. Well one reason seems to be that neither the Palestinian leadership nor their Arab allies, supporters or interlocutors really believe this proposition.

As evidence we need nothing more than the latest observations by the Egyptian Foreign Minister Aboul Ahmed Geit. He has suggested that the Israelis need to honor “a promise to release 1,000 Palestinian prisoners for Cpl. Gilad Shalit.” In an interview at the U.N. he expanded on this by observing that “[i]f you want a soldier, if you need a certain commodity and you are ready to pay in that commodity then pay for the sake of the soldier — give the Palestinians what they are after.”

Apparently the Palestinian leadership, and its allies are quite happy with the proposition that a single Israeli is worth 1,000 Palestinians. This is bizzare. The Israelis have been happy to indulge this style of thinking in the past, releasing hundreds of Palestinian detainees / prisoners in exchange for an individual Israeli. Presumably the Palestinians that the Israeli’s release are not seen as hard-core terrorists. No doubt Palestinian families are happy to receive their family members back, but from both a practical and a morale standpoint this strikes me as insidious.

Practically, it encourages the Israelis to imprison more people than they may need to in order to ensure they have a sufficient surplus of low-value detainees that they can exchange at need.

From a morale standpoint these exchanges can only bolster an Israeli self-image that sees themselves as superior to Palestinians while equally depressing Palestinians. After-all, what is the value of a Palestinian life to either party when you allow a 1000-1 exchange rate. Clearly the Israelis don’t think much of the Palestinians if they are willing to hand over 1,000 of them in exchange for a single Corporal.

Simply put, if you don’t value yourself why would anyone else value you.

It seems to me that from a morale standpoint the Palestinians might do better to demand the release of a single Palestinian, of equivalent rank, in exchange for Gilad Shalit. It would send the message that they don’t think Israelis are better than them in any manner. Plus it would have the additional advantage of making Israeli detention practices look more extreme. As per “we held a single Israeli, and we have secured the release of one of our people. But Israel still holds X thousand of our people etc etc.”

As an example, if I am a South Korean citizen would I care more if I lost 1 won or 1 U.S. dollar (today’s exchange rate 1190-1). I know that 1 dollar isn’t really worth all that much, so this exchange tells me even more emphatically that 1 won is really worthless.

September 25, 2009

Iran’s backup enrichment facility.

Filed under: Uncategorized — admin @ 5:28 pm

This issue is getting a lot of play today, rightly enough. Arms Control Wonk has some useful thoughts on the topic while ISIS has linked to the official US government talking points about the facility which definitely should serve as a starting point for all further readings and discussion.

The Iranian official line seems to be that the facility is a pilot plant which is all very well except that you usually build a pilot plant before you progress to the main industrial facility (Natanz) rather than after it is already operating. So, either we politely ask the Iranians to reconsider their “pilot plant” story or alternatively ask that they elaborate on just what it is they are doing here that is so different to the operations at Natanz that a new pilot facility is required. I expect that at the same time we can ask where the primary facility that this is a pilot for will be located and why this, presumably 3rd enrichment plant is required.

I am particularly interested in Geoff Forden’s observation at ACW that the Iranians may have been using Natanz as a training facility, even at the expense of getting the facility up and running at maximum efficiency. Technical projects in developing countries often suffer the ill-effects of a shallow pool of technicians and expert personnel. In much of the public discussion of potential scenarios for the bombing and presumably damaging of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure it is presumed that attacks of this sort would do little more than impose a temporary delay on the program while providing incentives for acceleration of any weaponization efforts. It seems to me that such discussions assume that Iran would still have its cadre of experienced qualified technicians, engineers and scientists after an attack and that these personnel would be able to swiftly restore the program. Probably not an unreasonable assumption in these days of precision bombing designed to minimize civilian casualties. However Forden’s observation, if it is correct, suggests that the Iranian government is not willing to rely on an attacker resisting the temptation to kill as many of its trained personnel in an attack as possible.

Air raids aimed at killing large numbers of technical personnel engaged in secret work on high-technology projects are not unprecedented. The most relevant case is probably the August 18, 1943 R.A.F. raid on Peenemunde. Due to the technical difficulties of successfully pulling off a night-time precision bombing attack in 1943 the raid did not achieve its goal of killing the leading engineering personnel or inflict substantial damage on key facilities. Nevertheless the goal of the operation was sound and if the initial targeting had been more effective it would have been difficult for Germany to continue with its A-4 missile program.

In the context of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure the enrichment plants, and the factories that produce centrifuges may be less valuable targets for an attacker than dormitories and residential facilities. However with the passing of time and the continuing expansion of the Iranian nuclear program the value of any particular individual will continue to decrease as they become less and less irreplaceable.

May 20, 2009

Syrian WMD

Filed under: Iran, chemical terrorism, chemical weapons — admin @ 2:38 pm

Its that time again. Pressure for negotiations between Syria and Israel, or Presidents looking for solutions to the problems that Israel has with its various neighbors often seems to result in new revelations about Syrian WMD activity.

This time we have a double barreled effort.

The first report is a little older, April 3rd, but I believe it is still part of the same process.

Well-placed Lebanese sources have told Jane’s that Iran has proposed a contingency plan to supply the south Lebanon-based Party of God (Hizbullah) with chemical weapons via Syria. (subscription only)

Secondly, May 12th:

Syria has reportedly rebuilt the structure bombed that housed the reactor bombed by Israel last year and has turned it into a facility for manufacturing chemical and biological weapons. Official sources sad that Syria had significantly expanded its biological and chemical weapons program by doing so.

This more recent article is actually a pretty impressive effort successfully combining concerns about nuclear, biological and chemical weapons in a single package.

Taking these two articles together we can easily come to the conclusion that Syria is a very dangerous country, certainly not one with which Israel can negotiate. After all, in addition to actively expanding its CBW programs Syria is working with the Iranians to supply CW to Hizbullah. Given the narrative in the West that frames Hizbullah as a terrorist organization we now have “substantive” support for the idea that Syria and Iran are supplying WMD to terrorists.

Where is this going? That is not clear. These “leaks” and statements could be intended to make it more difficult to pressure Israel to undertake negotiations with Syria and the Palestinians, or they might have a broader intent of undermining the Obama administrations middle-east plans including settlements with Syria and Iran. They might be tied to the upcoming Lebanese elections that the March 8 coalition, which features Hizbullah as a prominent member, has a significant chance of winning. Or in a worst case scenario they may part of a program intended to demonize Syria and Iran prior to Israeli military action directed at one or even both of them.

For any or all of these possibilities the accuracy of the assertions made in the reports highlighted above are not all that important. There is very little likeliood that any equivalent of the Iraq Survey Group will be investigating Iranian or Syrian activities in the near future so the accusations can do their work while remaining effectively unchallenged. Denials from Hizbullah, Iran or Syria will not have any significant impact given the difficulty of proving a negative and their unwillingness to allow any outsiders the kind of access that would be required to substantiate their statements.

In the short term these reports get added to the pile of unsupported public assertions to the effect that Syria is continuing to expand its CW program and that Iran is in substantive breach of its obligations under the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC). The matter is not anymore likely to be formally raised by the US or any of its allies at the OPCW than the previous allegations that Iran was maintaining a secret CW stockpile and production capacity.

Ultimately the extent to which the NGO or private-sector analyst gives these allegations credence, given that they will not see any of the secret source material that underpins the public statements, will be determined by their existing assessments of Syria, Iran and the WMD relationship between the two countries.

May 5, 2009

Nonproliferation Prepcoms

Filed under: Iran, nuclear weapons — admin @ 11:17 pm

Unfortunately i have not been able to go down to the city to attend the NPT Prepcom, but at least the Secretariat has done a good job of getting relevant documentation up on the web quickly. Right now I am contemplating the small stack of working papers produced by the Islamic Republic of Iran. I haven’t gone through them thoroughly yet, that is the project for the next few hours followed by some thinking about the intent and implications, but from a quick initial glance it looks like they are attempting to put others on the back foot and shape the direction of the review process in such a way as to minimize any possible pressure that the United States, and others, might attempt to put on them.

The approach they are taking (focusing on a lack of progress in nuclear disarmament, Israeli nuclear weapons, and the right of all NPT members to undertake the full range of peaceful activities countries) is a seemingly reasonable one and is made easier by the interest of many states party to the NPT, and indeed many NGOs, in interpreting the treaty in such a way as to emphasize Article VI (disarmament undertaking of nuclear weapons states) and Article IV (the right to have full access to nuclear energy).

At the same time however the Iranian’s might actually be shooting themselves in the toe (not the foot though) through their use of an all too common, over-the-top style of language that is more appropriate to propaganda broadcast and election campaigns rather than somewhat colourless environment of UN meetings. My suspicion that they are not actually shooting themselves in the foot with this language comes out of the expectation that they are not actually aiming this language at a Western audience that is unlikely to be impressed by such bald language. Instead I expect it is aimed at the larger community of nations represented in the somewhat anachronistic Non-Aligned Movement (NAM). Many of these countries are likely to support the Iranian position out of sympathy or perceived self-interest. After all, by now many on all sides of the nonproliferation debate must see that Iran is indeed the proverbial camel’s nose. Where they differ is over the nature and value of what is still outside the tent.

Anyway more tomorrow when I have digested these statements and working papers.

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