Proliferating Thoughts

September 30, 2009

Sea-based Missile Defense.

Filed under: missile defense — admin @ 10:08 pm

Following on from President Obama’s decision to cancel plans for the installation of a land-based Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) system in Eastern Europe there has been a lot of discussion of the merits of this, generally on the lines of:

a) Obama has betrayed NATO and especially our vulnerable East European allies in return for empty promises from the Russians.

b) Obama has abandoned the corrosive policies of the previous administration allowing us to move forward on the important goals of nuclear disarmament and bounding Iran.  (PS: BMD would never have worked anyway so canceling it is good)

There are variations but that catches the general drift. There are usually some attached assertions about the anticipated effectiveness or otherwise of the proposed BMD systems that would have been installed in Poland. These are joined by further statements about how we will now be able to cooperate with the Russians on missile defense, some of which are reasonable while others are painfully naive.

What has been missing is vigorous discussion of the technical and operational aspects of the proposed replacement BMD system. Specifically the deployment of a number of Aegis warships tasked with the provision of missile defense services to Europe. For those interested in this rather important part of the equation I offer a couple of links worth pursuing. The first two are from Information Dissemination while the third is from The Space Review both of which are sources deserving of regular visits.

The first provides an overview of the technical capabilities of the Aegis BMD capability, paying particular attention to the number of ships that have the relevant capabilities built in or planned as an upgrade.

The second article gives some additional thought to the impact of this mission on the force structure of the U.S. Navy and raises the question of whether this will actually be a net positive contributor to Western security.

Finally, The Space Review carried an article by Brian Weeden this Monday that addresses the space-security aspects of this new mission for the U.S. Navy given that this BMD capability was the one used last year to shoot down a satellite in a decaying low-earth orbit.

Oh, and of course there is time for an obligatory missile defense picture.

SM-3 BMD Launch

Old Media continues its stumble towards the grave.

Filed under: Uncategorized — admin @ 4:06 pm

For some time now we have been hearing about how unjustly the traditional news media is being treated. Cruelly undermined by a new media that is indifferent to the high standards of sourcing and quality writing that outlets such as the NY Times have upheld for generations. Of course that is nothing more than self-serving claptrap on the part of the NY Times.

As an example we have this snippet from a story about an impending meeting between Iran and the group of six.

Mr. Ban met with Mr. Mottaki on Tuesday, just four days after a similar session with President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of Iran. Mr. Ban again told the Iranians that Security Council resolutions required the disclosure of any new nuclear plant when construction began, he told reporters afterward.

“If you were a normal country, you would declare it all beforehand,” a senior United Nations official said Mr. Ban had told Mr. Mottaki. “That is why you have Security Council resolutions against you, because you try to hide stuff.”

There are several problems with the rather confusing excerpt. First of all we are linking together a statement directly attributed to UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon (he told reporters afterward) in the first paragraph with a statement attributed to an unnamed “senior United Nations official” in the second. If you don’t closely read the two paragraphs you could easily conclude that the quoted statements are actually Mr. Ban’s. Which leads us to the primary problem, placing statements in quote-marks in a misleading way.

An initial reading of this statement leads the reader to think that Mr. Ban met with an Iranian official and then in a subsequent press conference said, presumably paraphrasing himself; “If you were a normal country, you would declare it all beforehand, . . . That is why you have Security Council resolutions against you, because you try to hide stuff.”

However this is not the case. At best the quote is from a UN official paraphrasing the words of Mr. Ban. It is second-hand and probably should not be treated as anything more than hearsay. If nothing else it seems unlikely that the UN Secretary-General would be telling Iranian diplomats to not “hide stuff.”

Perhaps the reporter used this “quote” because he wanted something pithy and informal that sounded a little tougher than we are used to hearing from the UN. Although the reporter has earlier quoted Mr. Ban he still feels it necessary to quote someone else repeating what they claim to be Mr. Ban’s words. The “quote” creates a somewhat different impression to that given by Mr. Ban’s words at the press conference. The reporter’s creativity is further underlined when he writes that “Mr. Ban said that he had also complained to Mr. Ahmadinejad about human rights violations.”

It is not clear when Mr. Ban made this statement that he had “complained” to the Iranian President but the structure of the article implies that Mr. Ban made this statement on Tuesday. However it certainly was not in the press conference of September 29th. Indeed the only references to human-rights issues in that press conference were to a issue raised by the Iranians and concerns over the situation in Sri Lanka.

If this report is the sort of thing that the NY Times thinks represent its strengths in reporting and analysis it is not all that surprising that the paper is rapidly declining. The article is nothing more than a jumbled pastiche of misleading “quotes’” and untraceable statements embellished by editorializing by the author. In this day and age, when a reader can much more easily get hold of copies of source material like official statements or press conference transcipts you might expect newspapers to try harder to ensure that their quotes a relevant and accurate and that they don’t misrepresent the tenor or content of statements. Apparently I am expecting too much.

In my experience “new media,” particularly high-quality blogs are doing the newspapers jobs much more effectively. And that is why old media is dying.

PS: I have noticed this for a long time now and had hoped that it would change at some point, but again, I appear to have been expecting too much.  Why is it that when the online versions of newspapers and other old media run stories that refer to press conferences, or the release of official documents, or even interesting reports or analyses by non-profits or think-tanks, they neglect to include links to the relevant source material either in the body of the article or at least in a sidebar. Is it really asking so much? This is pretty unforgivable in 2009. All it really does is make them less useful as a source of information and highlight their inability to adapt.

September 27, 2009

The value of a life (e.g: WTF)

Filed under: Israel - Palestine — Tags: , , , — admin @ 9:45 pm

A continuing thorn in Israel’s side is the soldier, Gilad Shalit who was captured by HAMAS back in 2006. Negotiations for his release ebb and wane without ever producing his release. I understand that those holding him feel that they are gaining leverage over the Israeli government and that they eventually hope to secure the release of some of their own people who held by the Israelis. There is nothing new in this, this sort of thing has been going on for years, Shalit is simply the latest Israeli soldier captured  and then offered in trade for Palestinian prisoners.

The bit I do not understand are the calculations made by the Palestinians. They are regularly ground down by Israeli military and economic strength and go to great lengths denouncing the Israelis in a variety of lurid ways. The general contention is that Palestinians are equal to Israelis and deserve to be treated as equals. Fair enough, why not. Well one reason seems to be that neither the Palestinian leadership nor their Arab allies, supporters or interlocutors really believe this proposition.

As evidence we need nothing more than the latest observations by the Egyptian Foreign Minister Aboul Ahmed Geit. He has suggested that the Israelis need to honor “a promise to release 1,000 Palestinian prisoners for Cpl. Gilad Shalit.” In an interview at the U.N. he expanded on this by observing that “[i]f you want a soldier, if you need a certain commodity and you are ready to pay in that commodity then pay for the sake of the soldier — give the Palestinians what they are after.”

Apparently the Palestinian leadership, and its allies are quite happy with the proposition that a single Israeli is worth 1,000 Palestinians. This is bizzare. The Israelis have been happy to indulge this style of thinking in the past, releasing hundreds of Palestinian detainees / prisoners in exchange for an individual Israeli. Presumably the Palestinians that the Israeli’s release are not seen as hard-core terrorists. No doubt Palestinian families are happy to receive their family members back, but from both a practical and a morale standpoint this strikes me as insidious.

Practically, it encourages the Israelis to imprison more people than they may need to in order to ensure they have a sufficient surplus of low-value detainees that they can exchange at need.

From a morale standpoint these exchanges can only bolster an Israeli self-image that sees themselves as superior to Palestinians while equally depressing Palestinians. After-all, what is the value of a Palestinian life to either party when you allow a 1000-1 exchange rate. Clearly the Israelis don’t think much of the Palestinians if they are willing to hand over 1,000 of them in exchange for a single Corporal.

Simply put, if you don’t value yourself why would anyone else value you.

It seems to me that from a morale standpoint the Palestinians might do better to demand the release of a single Palestinian, of equivalent rank, in exchange for Gilad Shalit. It would send the message that they don’t think Israelis are better than them in any manner. Plus it would have the additional advantage of making Israeli detention practices look more extreme. As per “we held a single Israeli, and we have secured the release of one of our people. But Israel still holds X thousand of our people etc etc.”

As an example, if I am a South Korean citizen would I care more if I lost 1 won or 1 U.S. dollar (today’s exchange rate 1190-1). I know that 1 dollar isn’t really worth all that much, so this exchange tells me even more emphatically that 1 won is really worthless.

September 25, 2009

Iran’s backup enrichment facility.

Filed under: Uncategorized — admin @ 5:28 pm

This issue is getting a lot of play today, rightly enough. Arms Control Wonk has some useful thoughts on the topic while ISIS has linked to the official US government talking points about the facility which definitely should serve as a starting point for all further readings and discussion.

The Iranian official line seems to be that the facility is a pilot plant which is all very well except that you usually build a pilot plant before you progress to the main industrial facility (Natanz) rather than after it is already operating. So, either we politely ask the Iranians to reconsider their “pilot plant” story or alternatively ask that they elaborate on just what it is they are doing here that is so different to the operations at Natanz that a new pilot facility is required. I expect that at the same time we can ask where the primary facility that this is a pilot for will be located and why this, presumably 3rd enrichment plant is required.

I am particularly interested in Geoff Forden’s observation at ACW that the Iranians may have been using Natanz as a training facility, even at the expense of getting the facility up and running at maximum efficiency. Technical projects in developing countries often suffer the ill-effects of a shallow pool of technicians and expert personnel. In much of the public discussion of potential scenarios for the bombing and presumably damaging of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure it is presumed that attacks of this sort would do little more than impose a temporary delay on the program while providing incentives for acceleration of any weaponization efforts. It seems to me that such discussions assume that Iran would still have its cadre of experienced qualified technicians, engineers and scientists after an attack and that these personnel would be able to swiftly restore the program. Probably not an unreasonable assumption in these days of precision bombing designed to minimize civilian casualties. However Forden’s observation, if it is correct, suggests that the Iranian government is not willing to rely on an attacker resisting the temptation to kill as many of its trained personnel in an attack as possible.

Air raids aimed at killing large numbers of technical personnel engaged in secret work on high-technology projects are not unprecedented. The most relevant case is probably the August 18, 1943 R.A.F. raid on Peenemunde. Due to the technical difficulties of successfully pulling off a night-time precision bombing attack in 1943 the raid did not achieve its goal of killing the leading engineering personnel or inflict substantial damage on key facilities. Nevertheless the goal of the operation was sound and if the initial targeting had been more effective it would have been difficult for Germany to continue with its A-4 missile program.

In the context of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure the enrichment plants, and the factories that produce centrifuges may be less valuable targets for an attacker than dormitories and residential facilities. However with the passing of time and the continuing expansion of the Iranian nuclear program the value of any particular individual will continue to decrease as they become less and less irreplaceable.

Powered by WordPress