Proliferating Thoughts

A number of CW related issues are floating around me at the moment. These include; the appropriateness of continued Western financial support for the Russian CW destruction program; The question of how, exactly, the CWC is supposed to provide a meaningful contribution to preventing terrorist use of chemical weapons; how to address the fundamental problem in dealing with CW destruction issues in the US where communities want to see the weapons destroyed immediately but are unwilling to support increased taxes, and continue to introduce new roadblocks in the form of environmental considerations that have the effect of slowing the process; the ongoing delay in Iraqi CW accession; and finally the never-ending shrill cries from alarmists / cassandras about the impending doom that terrorists with WMD will bring down on our collective heads any day now.

Then there are of course the other issues of interest and concern as well. One is the possibly hopeless efforts of NASA to put in place a set of launchers that are capable of meeting the requirements of their chosen mission architecture for a return to the moon. And the level of concern associated with this program rises to a high level without even considering the possibility that the chosen architecture is itself deeply flawed. Allowing domestic politics to intrude, ever so briefly, I am troubled by the manner in which the US political system has functioned up to now this election season to throw up two major party presidential candidates, neither of which seem ideally suited to the challenges that they will be facing once in office. Somewhat turgidly phrased but any other way of saying my point seemed a little impolite.

Back to international politics I am appalled by the path that is being taken in Zimbabwe. At this point it seems clear that there is no longer a possibility of peaceful regime change in that country. President Mugabe and his supporters have deliberately closed all doors and paths for peaceful opposition to the government. Although the opposition MDC appears to be continuing with its efforts at achieving peaceful change the withdrawal from the Presidential run-off is a disaster for that country. ZANU-PF probably feels that it has achieved a great victory and no doubt this will encourage the President to take whatever actions he deems appropriate to ensure that the MDC’s hard-won parliamentary majority has no impact. In the wake of the Presidential elections, which Mugabe cannot help but win now, we should expect efforts to suborn, or simply remove, a sufficient number of MDC MPs to restore a ZANU-PF majority.

At some point the leadership of the MDC, or a portion of the grass-roots organization, is going to turn to violence. Given, from the standpoint of the MDC and its supporters, the absolute necessity of Mugabe’s removal from office, and the impossibility of achieving this through peaceful means, and the ongoing, and probably in the post-election environment, escalating campaign of violence directed against MDC members it is just a matter of time before armed insurrection is adopted as the new approach. Naturally this will be a new disaster for what is already a deeply troubled country, the more so given that such a campaign of violence will be unlikely to meet with swift success, especially without support from neighboring countries. And of course any such developments in Zimbabwe can only have a negative impact on its neighbors, as is increasingly being recognized.

The desperate call for UN intervention by Morgan Tsvangiri is unlikely to produce any useful result and may even be a personal disaster for him. His call includes a statement to the effect that “[w]e do not want armed conflict, but the people of Zimbabwe need the words of indignation from global leaders to be backed by the moral rectitude of military force.” Although the reference to armed conflict is intended to refer to the likely implications of attempts to introduce a UN peacekeeping force, which Mugabe would almost certainly resist it can also be seen as the beginning of the road to violence. Earlier in his statement Tsvangiri asked “What do you do when you don’t have guns and the people are being brutalized out there?” At presnt his answer is call on the UN for help, a weak reed to rely on at any time. But clearly another answer to his question is ‘get your own guns.’ As far as his personal well-being is concerned it seems reasonable to conclude that Mugabe will not take kindly to Tsvangiri’s appeal to the UN. The MDC’s deputy leader is already being charged with treason for much lesser activities than calling for the introduction of foreign military forces. Politically the appeal may also be damaging as it allows Mugabe to offer “evidence” to support his claims that the MDC seeks to enable the recolonization of Zimbabwe.

All in all the situation in Zimbabwe is depressing. It does not affect me in the least but that does not mean that I can’t have sympathy as I watch a once prosperous society circle the drain.